China's date to surpass India's IT services export industry is now 2011 (every 2 years or so this changes but people take it for granted that it will happen at some time)- Reported by CNET in early 2007
The former Beijing bureau chief of the Washington Times writes in this article (A Long Wait at the Gate to Greatness) about the misplaced expectations on China's rise.
For all the efforts they are making I feel this is going to take them longer than they think. Besides they are prone to exactly the same challenges India is facing- attrition, rising salaries, competition from mature global players, quality challenges and so on. It has taken us over 20 years and a great first-mover advantage to come this far, including quality systems that were pioneered in India, albeit designed in the US. It has been almost 2 years since the CNET report. Time to measure progress. We need to wait and see, but it;s not likely to be 2011 unless something drastic happens in India to disrupt the industry.